13.Nov.2010 | Brad Inman
E-books are crossing the chasm
In 1957, three Iowa State professors, Joe Bohlen, George Beal and Everett Rogers studied “how farm people accept new ideas”. Their research and conclusions are still widely accepted today, explaining how technology spreads from one group to another. The three authors published a widely acclamied book Diffusion of Innovations, which is now in its 5th edition.
Their model shows that the first group of people to use a new product are ”innovators,” followed by “early adopters.” Next come the early and late majority, and the last group to eventually adopt a product are called “laggards.”
The term “early adopters” was popularized with the 1991 (updated in 1999) dot.com book, Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore who proposes a variation of the adoption cycle. He suggests that for disruptive innovations, there is a gap or chasm between the first two adopter groups (innovators/early adopters), and the early majority.
E-books are suddenly the craze and by all evidence are crossing the chasm. They are no longer stuck in the 1-5 percent-of-hard-cover-book-sales zone. Many e-books are breaking out of the pack and even exceeding hard cover sales. Vook has at least four titles that have crossed that threshold.
These signs show us that e-books will quickly cross the chasm.
Soon, comparisons with physical books will no longer be relevant, as physical books fade into history and e-books become the dominant form of reading.
It took about 10 years for personal computers to surpass typewriters. The reason was quite simple: over a few short years the PC could perform basic functions better than the typewriter, plus it offered many more useful features. With e-books, the devices perform as well as physical books, plus offer more functionality, such as back lighting, storeage, highlighting, sharing and non-reading functions such as email.
Much like the PC to typewriter ratio, e-books will become a much larger market than physical books. As the pie gets larger, nostalgia gives way to opportunity and a better experience.
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